The future of the hobby.

These have been very strange times, over the past six years or so. 

There has been a growing trend to only acquire 66 and 67+ Q notes. Even 65Q's are a bargain right now.

In the world of early (large size and 12 subject era) star notes, there is a large host of notes that never survived in CU. And if they did, it might be 62 or 63, with or without Q. 

These notes are being left on the table, and ignored. 

There are dozens of notes that have populations of less than five.

There are also huge pricing inconsistencies. A 1928 $10 Cleveland star will fetch over $1,500 easily in CCU, while a 1934 $10 Philly mule star will sit around for years, with no buyers for the same price. 

The Cleveland star is fairly common, and can be had with patience in CCU. The mule Philly star is unique in CCU and has three total known in any grade. A 1928 note with three known and one CCU would be a five figure note !! 

There needs to be a review of over rated notes and under rated notes. There are too many notes (1928G $2 star) that are over priced, and too many rare notes, that are too cheap (I really can't complain). 

What are other's thought on this ?

Oh man there are so many overrated notes in small size. How about the $2 1928C LT star in VF?
$1 Hawaii and North Africa in 65/66.
R&S notes in 65/66
$1 1928 LT in CU
$1 1928C, D and E SC's
$5 1953B LT star in 67 (selling on Heritage for really stupid money)

Also, the $10 1933 SC.

There may be as many as 300+ of those in existence. 

Many of the 1928 FRN stars, and 1929 FRBN stars are over rated and over priced. Many 1934 FRN stars are as rare or rarer than the 1928 FRN's and 1929 FRBN's. 

Here is a top top note that is under rated. 

$5 Reno 1929 nationals! Extremely overpriced

The 1957 $1 SC U37/U47 mismatch serial number error is also very overrated

I agree Larry.

1966 and 1966A $100 USN's are at least in part, over rated.

Well said.

I am noticing that there are notes that are over priced and get too much recognition.

There are many rare notes that are ignored.

It seems like the hobby is manic now, with either junk circulation finds or screaming gems.

You are correct in the evaluation that it is manic. Situations of the past couple years have left many in the position of grappling for some means of what to do. Unfortunately the influx of government money and the so called "expendable" funds of so many has sent it on a ride.
I as a collector and seller have seen it from both sides, and it makes no sense to me. Others say it's great for the hobby. Valuations are finally going where they should be? My opinion is ignorance and too much money. I think it's a double edged sword that's going come back to bite many in the end. You can only drive an engine so hard for so long before it eventually blows.
Many need to take notes of the past and learn from it. The truth behind the saying " history repeats itself" is so true. It may have a different appearance, but bottom line is the same.

On that other forum, some of the members feel that using Heritage or Track and Price are suitable.

I am going to post three notes as an example / exercise.



The note above only appeared once on Heritage, going all the way back to 1990. That one appearance was in 2013. S/L never listed one. The note that sold in 2013, sold for $768. Only two are known to exist, both VF. How do you price a note this rare ?



I have showed this several times. The C star mule listed on S/L is actually a LGS non mule. Therefore, this is unlisted in S/L, and none have ever sold on H/A. Three known, making this very rare. A F/VF is locked up in a well known collection, there is a EF40, and then this one. This 63Q sat on eBay for over two years, and was priced at $1,448. I paid almost that for the note. I am sure that many experienced collectors saw the note, but thought it was over priced. A top pop, only surviving CU, with three total known, for that price, seems like a steal to me.



The note above is ugly as hell, and I bought it for $112, on eBay, earlier this month. Three known: this one, a fine, and a VF20, once owned by Mike Crabb. The Crabb note is listed in S/L, and none have ever sold on Heritage. While not an attractive note, it is mega rare, and is 100 percent original. Another note where one has to ask: How do you put a value on it ?

The 1934D $10 star set is tough and surprisingly rewarding.

Districts E, F, I, J, K and L are all scarce to rare.

A very early J star.